by: Mason Gentry
On Jan. 3 of this year, President Donald Trump issued a drone strike on Iranian General, Qassem Soleimani, in order to deter what the President deemed an “imminent threat” to Americans.
The airstrike killed Soleimani and also Iraqi politician and militia commander, Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis.
In an interview with Dr. Dale Gardner, an International Relations professor at Parkland College, the Prospectus was able to gather more insight into the conflict between the U.S. and Iran.
According to Gardner, General Soleimani, “Was without a doubt a major ringleader for militant Iranian causes in Iraq and elsewhere.” However, he also said that there has not been any clear evidence given to the public that shows any imminent threat and that there are still many unanswered questions.
Gardner informed that the, “Iranians have so far just sent a relatively ineffective volley of SCUD missiles, and the U.S. administration has not continued with more deadly targeted strikes of its own.”
Perhaps there will be no more violence to come from these attacks, however the tensions do not seem to have subsided yet.
The authority to declare war is congressionally exclusive, meaning the President cannot declare war under any circumstances. However, Gardner said that, “U.S. Presidents have a lot of discretion in the conduct of foreign and military affairs,” and that the President’s loyalty within his party makes it difficult for Congress to oppose these kinds of military strikes.
“The resolutions to the current conflicts are highly debated. Gardner thinks that negotiation and diplomacy have the best chance of success in easing tensions”
“A war would prove to be very costly as the U.S. would need to secure the Strait of Hormuz, the waters of the Persian Gulf and the northwestern Arabian Sea from threats to oil shipping,” said Gardner.
These water ways are crucial to the circulation of oil throughout the rest of the world. Without securing such important oil arteries or pathways, a likely oil crisis will impact China, India, Japan and the European Union. Gardner also said that irregular warfare at sea would be just as challenging as land warfare in Iran because of its terrain, heat and populous cities.
In a response to whether third-party actors, such as Russia, would be likely to assist Iran in wartime, Gardner said that, “Aid to Iran from other powers seems to me unlikely in any short-term period, but I have no doubt war would rouse up international opposition, especially over the longer term.”
The resolutions to the current conflicts are highly debated. Gardner thinks that negotiation and diplomacy have the best chance of success in easing tensions. However, he also noted that others think that, “standing firm with violent counter actions” might prove to be more effective.
According to Gardner, the conflict dates to the year 1979 during the Iranian Revolution. This revolution was a successful attempt to overthrow the last monarchy of Iran and replace it with an Islamic Republic.
The international relations professor said that there has also been a “general bipartisan consensus” for the role of the U.S. in the Middle East to support Israel. He said that the conflict goes back to the Iranian Hostage Crisis of 1979-1980. The conflicts in the Middle East were, again, reinvigorated by the attacks on 9/11 forcing the U.S. to act against terrorism. We have stayed since then to fight the Islamic State.
“Moreover, as Trump has said, the Saudi Arabians and other Gulf states offer a lot of money for arms and military protection,” wrote Gardner.
All these causes have made it hard for the U.S. to extract itself from the Middle East as its policy in the region “exhibits a lot of inertia,” said Gardner.
Today, Iran is a major oil producer. Gardner said that it is a reasonably diverse and industrialized economy but would, “surely do much better without all the international sanctions it endures.”
Iran has also been developing a nuclear industry, one that worries its neighbors as well as the United Nations Security Council. Gardner said that the industry, “could be quickly diverted for military purposes.”
Iran also has much influence in political movements and governments in the Middle East. “The Iranian leadership has considerable sway, if not outright control, over significant political movements or governments in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, [the] Arabian Peninsula and Yemen,” Gardner said.
Gardner also said that “Iran has long had a cautious, but not too unfriendly relationship with Russia, and sometimes looks to the new countries of Central Asia for trade.”
In order to achieve a more peaceful relationship, Gardner offered that we should recognize common interests in the region such as the fight against the Islamic State and the Taliban.
Gardner also thinks that the U.S. should encourage more trade and investment in Iran, not less, so each party can benefit and develop a relationship.
